[X] My Assistant

[Comfey]

So I haven't seen a single topic about this posted recently, and my apologies if it's posted about often or something, but I'm 99% positive that I've figured out the shiny odds for GPX.

It's 1/227.

I'll explain my reasoning. First off, upon research, I've found that people have estimated that the odds are 1/300, although the developers and administrators have stated that "it's closer to 200." This automatically narrows down the odds to anywhere between 1/250 and 1/101. Which helps somewhat, though still doesn't quite let us figure out the specifics on its own.

However, my biggest reason is this...and it may be wrong due to GPX being older than Gen 6 games, but this makes the most sense to me, so I'll try it anyway...

The odds for Pokemon games (as of 2013, at least) is, at max, 1/4096. However, when the Shiny Charm comes into play, those odds are divided by 3 and become 1/1365. Then, the best odds you can get involves the Masuda Method, which halves and lowers your odds to a whopping 1/683. This is where GPX comes into play, where, if you divide 683 by 3, you get 1/227 (specifically 1/227.666667...et cetera). Or, alternatively, if you divide 683 by 4, you get 1/170 (specifically 170.75).

Both of these fall within the (albeit broad) range, while also making quite a lot of sense when it comes to staying traditional to the mechanics of the games. Although, thinking a bit longer about it, 1/227 sounds more correct considering the odds do seem much more likely to be between 1/250 and 1/200, rather than between 1/250 and 1/101, since I have seen shiny hunts (or avg. shiny ratios) typically go on for over 200 eggs more often than they'd go on for under 200 eggs. As thus, my final conclusion to this mystery...is 1/227.

Thoughts? Do you think this sounds right, or do you think this sounds wrong?

This post has been edited by Comfey: Sep 1 2017, 01:50 AM

[Cycloneblaze]

The odds have been in place since 2009 or so, long before the Shiny Charm was a thing. I very much doubt that in-game rates have had any bearing on the GPX+ rate - personally I think it's just a number somewhere, rather than a formula like the games. But that's purely speculation.

I'd also like to see your source for staff saying "it's closer to 200". I don't doubt you but I don't recall seeing that myself.

[Comfey]

The odds have been in place since 2009 or so, long before the Shiny Charm was a thing. I very much doubt that in-game rates have had any bearing on the GPX+ rate - personally I think it's just a number somewhere, rather than a formula like the games. But that's purely speculation.

I'd also like to see your source for staff saying "it's closer to 200". I don't doubt you but I don't recall seeing that myself.

I'm trying to google a source but all I can find is the wikia's page on shinies. Though it still seems quite plausible.

And yeah, I figured it'd be just some random number. Guess I just posted this trying to look clever, or something. Oh well.

I'm just a little bit irritated, I guess, that the administrators are keeping this trivially uninteresting number a secret because they believe it's "fun" for members to try and figure out, when there's absolutely no way to know what it is for sure thanks to the nature of RNG. I dunno. :U

This post has been edited by Comfey: Sep 1 2017, 03:46 PM

[Tyranisaur]

I'm going to question one thing in your post, and one thing only. Granted I could question some more points, but I choose this one.

I'm 99% positive that I've figured out the shiny odds for GPX.

How did you arrive at this specific percentage? If you can't give a good answer for this, how can I know for a fact how precise your numbers are?

[Cycloneblaze]

I mean, it's not really that interesting. If you do enough shiny hunts (or look at someone who has) you'll get a reasonably accurate guess at what the rate actually is. And it doesn't really help even if you do know it; even if it were 1:20, because it's decided when the egg is created and not hatched, you could still pick a thousand not-shiny eggs in a row very easily.

e:

I'm 99% positive that I've figured out the shiny odds for GPX.

How did you arrive at this specific percentage? If you can't give a good answer for this, how can I know for a fact how precise your numbers are?

Let's not be overly pedantic here. It's a very standard, hyperbolic way to say "I'm really really certain but there's always a chance I'm wrong", and you know that.

This post has been edited by Cycloneblaze: Sep 1 2017, 04:06 PM

[Comfey]

I mean, it's not really that interesting. If you do enough shiny hunts (or look at someone who has) you'll get a reasonably accurate guess at what the rate actually is. And it doesn't really help even if you do know it; even if it were 1:20, because it's decided when the egg is created and not hatched, you could still pick a thousand not-shiny eggs in a row very easily.

e:

I'm 99% positive that I've figured out the shiny odds for GPX.

How did you arrive at this specific percentage? If you can't give a good answer for this, how can I know for a fact how precise your numbers are?

Let's not be overly pedantic here. It's a very standard, hyperbolic way to say "I'm really really certain but there's always a chance I'm wrong", and you know that.

I know, it's just that as an extremely avid shiny hunter in the official games, it'd satiate my unnecessarily heartfelt desire to know what exactly the odds are, so I know, going in, if I'm above or under odds.

And yes, that's exactly what I mean by 99% sure, thank you.

[Synx Itax]

Sorry, but you are incorrect.

[Comfey]

Sorry, but you are incorrect.

So are you gonna tell us, then? Between 200/250 is pretty narrow enough to the point where I'd think that warrants just getting it out of the way.

Or I could just make guesses and say stuff like 1/225 until I get it, but it's not like you'd tell me when I'm correct doing that, right?

This post has been edited by Comfey: Sep 1 2017, 09:16 PM

[Yamper]

Sorry, but you are incorrect.

So are you gonna tell us, then? Between 200/250 is pretty narrow enough to the point where I'd think that warrants just getting it out of the way.

Or I could just make guesses and say stuff like 1/225 until I get it, but it's not like you'd tell me when I'm correct doing that, right?

It's classified, so I doubt it. We've never told anybody in the past so why start now? Either way nobody is gonna say.

[Comfey]

Sorry, but you are incorrect.

So are you gonna tell us, then? Between 200/250 is pretty narrow enough to the point where I'd think that warrants just getting it out of the way.

Or I could just make guesses and say stuff like 1/225 until I get it, but it's not like you'd tell me when I'm correct doing that, right?

It's classified, so I doubt it. We've never told anybody in the past so why start now? Either way nobody is gonna say.

Well that's lame. Oh well.